I usually try and write this in December, but as I was otherwise caught up this year, here’s a later, and somewhat truncated version:
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN 2024?
Humanoid: It doesn't seem too much of a stretch to suggest that we'll see another new near-magical technology given the pace of development across multiple areas, but what will it be? My bet is for a combinatorial mix of AI, synthetic biology, material science, and robotics, to create a startlingly human like robot. An android if you will. CES had more than its share of robots this year. The Teslabot is on its way. And BMW is deploying humanoid robots from Figure AI.
Jobs: A common phrase you hear is that people won't lose jobs to A.I. but that they will lose jobs to people using AI. This is a euphemism. Let me give you an example. You could say portrait painters didn't lose jobs to cameras, they lost jobs to people with cameras. This is already a bit specious, but it also masks the point that while a portrait painter might be able to paint a couple of portraits a week at best, working full time, a person with a camera could take 20 portraits in the same time. On the one hand this would expand the market for portraits, but it would also require significantly less painters/ photographers. AI and AI tools will expand work and do more things, but it will also replace many jobs in 2024, however we dress it up. Inequality may increase as well.
SDLC: Ironically, one of the areas where this will be strongly felt is in tech jobs, as AI also impacts the software development lifecycle (SDLC). Whether it's writing code, creating test cases, or debugging activity, a lot of the current work done by developers / humans will be done by forms of AI. Coupled with this as tech majors look to shift focus to AI work, we're already seeing the shedding of jobs by Google and Amazon, Meta having already done its restructuring last year. With the rapid growth of tools underpinning DevOps models, more automation and intelligence will creep in here as well.
Politics: Technology and Politics will become ever more intertwined. Because of the social and economic power technology bestows. Because technology leaders are ever more powerful and influential. And because this year is already slated to be a politically fraught year with major elections across the world, with players ready to weaponise all the tech they can get their hands on. Technology will exacerbate the fractious nature of the world.
Musk: Talking of which… Last year, I predicted the return of Elon Musk and Telsa, after his poor start to Twitter ownership, but I'm going the other way this year. Musk seems to be going dark - he will become increasingly political, and may self-destruct: he is showing all the signs of being a modern day Anakin Skywalker.
WHAT WILL KEEP HAPPENING
Life sciences and synthetic biology will keep evolving with stories about creating and replacing organs externally or internally. Livers, pancreases, and hearts will all be grown in labs, transferred from animals, or artificially grown inside human bodies, and more, moving us closer to a Ship of Theseus model of the human body, as life expectancy creeps up. But the scientific and medical advances will continue to be stymied by poor healthcare systems which are often highly change-resistant.
Needless to say, the year will see a continuous trend of Gen A.I. adoption. Delivering a cost saving of 10 % or more will become a staple for most businesses. Not taking 5-10% cost out of the business using AI and Gen AI tools will be seen as a failure. Other forms of AI (predicting, categorizing, optimising) adoption will keep building under the froth of Gen AI. Smarter companies will look to the upside potential of AI alongside the cost saving opportunities.
Climate: The move to renewables will continue, steadily. The cost of renewable energy will keep falling. Chinese solar panel costs fell to a record 12.2 c/ watt. Much will depend on the tax regime in 2024, and who takes the driving seat for the world's leading economies. The world will keep recording higher temperatures and climate disasters will keep unfolding.
Electric vehicles keep growing - 1000km / full charge is going to become normal, and range anxiety will become an obsolete term - as useful as 'fuel anxiety'. The demand for Lithium and Cobalt, for example, will change the dynamics of mining.
Bitcoin legitimacy: It's been mentioned in a few places that bitcoin is becoming a preferred hedge against sovereign currency fluctuations. Bitcoin ETFs which are based on bitcoin futures may allow many retail investors to build such a hedge. Opinion is divided on how valuable crypto will be, but still, one to watch.
Retail shift to online - high street shops and banks will continue to close. About 250 high street bank branches shut shop in 2023. 10,000 retail stores also shut their doors permanently in the year, leading to the loss of 120,000 jobs. Despite some brands touting their high street presence as a differentiator, it's likely that the the shift to online will continue.
Lab Grown Meat: I've been a personal convert and have been impressed with many forms of plant based options as well but lab grown meat is on its way. In 2023, the US Government approved lab grown chicken for sale in restaurants. The global animal meat business is worth $ 1.4 tn - so its fair to say there's plenty of headroom here.
AI & Jobs: Good Thing or Bad Thing?
This picture (received via Azeem Azhar’s newsletter) suggests that advanced economies are more exposed to AI disruption of jobs. The question is, in a capitalistic system, does that bode well or badly for the economies themselves? Is this a precursor to higher profits and shift of capital and investments? Will it reduce support and processing jobs moving to developing world? And will that indirectly mean AI hits the developing world as well? You decide!
Other Reading
Animal Language: Using AI to decode animal language. This is both an amazing story, and amazingly told with interactive graphics (FT)
Creativity: Age and the impact on creativity. Plenty of evidence to suggest that creativity in many forms persists into later years. (FT)
Rabbit Device: The Rabbit device has excited some people and also split opinion. Is it the device of the future, or should it just be an app on your smartphone? (TechCrunch)
Vision Pro: At the other end of the spectrum, the Apple Vision Pro is going on sale for $3500 or thereabouts. What’s your take? (The Verge)
Geometry AI: Google’s AlphaGeometry solves geometry problems at a ‘star student’ level and uses a combination of language and a symbolic system (Nature / Google)
Drone Warfare: How drones are reshaping warfare - more intelligence, more accuracy, and swarming. Less lives lost. So why does that still make me uncomfortable? (WSJ)
IP Protection: I feel this deserves a little more scrutiny - the indemnity offered by hyperscalers to organisations using Gen AI platforms is only a partial protection and comes with a lot of fine print. Could this impact adoption or at least create doubt given the recent (contended) lawsuit filed by the NYT against Open AI? (FT/ NYT)
Healthcare: An experimental chatbot developed on Google’s AI did better than certified physicians in diagnosing respiratory and cardiovascular conditions based on patients medical history. It also showed higher empathy. (Nature)
Semiconductor: Georgia Tech researchers have created a graphene based semiconductor that can deliver speeds up to 10x speeds (terahertz frequencies) compared to silicon based semiconductors. (IEEE Spectrum)
thanks for reading and see you next week.